SPC MD 398

MD 0398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN KS…NWRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 080416Z - 080515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE NOTED WITH FAST MOVING
SQUALL LINE AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NWRN MO.

DISCUSSION...UPWARD EVOLVING MCS APPEARS TO HAVE MATURED OVER NERN
KS WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE.  LATEST RADAR DATA EXHIBITS A WELL
DEFINED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURE THAT IS PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY
40-45KT WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO CROSS THE MO RIVER SHORTLY.  DESPITE
THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SFC OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.  EVEN SO...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WINDS MAY BE NOTED
WITH THIS FAST MOVING BOW SHAPED SQUALL LINE THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN A BIT SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LATEST THINKING
IS LIMITED BUOYANCY DOWNSTREAM OVER CNTRL MO MAY ULTIMATELY PROVE
DETRIMENTAL TO SEVERE ORGANIZATION.

..DARROW/HART.. 04/08/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40049540 39929394 39459244 38809288 39049440 39139586
            40049540

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0398.html