SPC MD 400

MD 0400 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN CO INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT MON APR 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081936Z - 082200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER FAR ERN CO ...AND MAY MATURE AND MOVE INTO WRN KS AND SWRN
NEB.

DISCUSSION...PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE AT AROUND 1.0 - 1.2 MB/HR
ACROSS ERN CO AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO RETURN NWWD. THE SURFACE THETA-E AXIS WAS
LOCATED FROM WRN OK INTO SERN CO JUST S OF A RELATIVELY COOL
STRATUS-INDUCED COLD POCKET FROM GCK TO DDC. GRADUAL HEATING SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...AND DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S OVER ERN CO...INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF CU BENEATH BROKEN CIRRUS NEAR LHX AND
EXTENDING NWD TOWARD AKO. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...A FEW
UPDRAFTS SHOULD GROW INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. WHEN THIS OCCURS...THE BACKED SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW CELLS TO TURN EWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE KS BORDER. HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE
ESSENTIALLY LIMITED BY AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IF STORMS CAN PERSIST
INTO THE 50 F DEWPOINT AIR...VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE BUT ONLY IF CELLS CAN
MAINTAIN STRENGTH INTO THE LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE CAPPING
DESTROYS THEM.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37700135 37640218 37650316 38130353 38930350 39740342
            40390308 40570205 40590135 40340087 39980069 39230076
            38460078 37930090 37700135

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0400.html