MD 0402 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SRN/CNTRL NEB…FAR NRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CDT MON APR 08 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL NEB...FAR NRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 082300Z - 090030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG A
SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WRN/CNTRL NEB THIS EVENING.
OTHER STORMS MAY MOVE NEWD OUT OF NERN CO INTO SWRN NEB...WHILE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NEB AND FAR NRN KS. LARGE HAIL IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...AT 2230Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED FROM FAR
NERN CO NEWD INTO CNTRL NEB. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
SERN CO...THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A 40+ KT LOW-LEVEL SLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AFTER DARK...WHICH WILL AID IN STRONG CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
FRONT. MID 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER SRN NEB. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S IS AIDING IN MUCAPE
VALUES FROM 500 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT TO VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG OVER
FAR SRN NEB. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING A
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED STORMS MAY MOVE OUT
OF NERN CO INTO SWRN NEB AS WELL...AND THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. OVER S-CNTRL NEB...A CELL RECENTLY
ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP IN NUCKOLLS COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL CLUMPING
CU OVER FAR NRN KS. THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY PRECLUDE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SHORT-TERM. HOWEVER...IF CELLS DO MANAGE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE LLJ...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.
..GARNER/DIAL.. 04/08/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40979715 40229721 39749788 39620094 40230184 41060207
41570171 42019950 41989800 40979715
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0402.html
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