SPC MD 410

MD 0410 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NE KS…S-CNTRL/CNTRL NEB


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...S-CNTRL/CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 091724Z - 092130Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WHILE LIFT OVER THE COLD FRONT PERSISTS. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION RATES
BUT FREEZING RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCH/HR ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG...SHALLOW COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE ACROSS
THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT FROM
JUST N OF LBB NEWD ACROSS FAR NW OK TO FNB /IN EXTREME SE NEB/. DEEP
LAYER FLOW IS ORIENTATED NEAR-PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...FAVORING THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MESOANALYSIS REVEALS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE NEB/SD BORDER. WHILE
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
/PRIMARILY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR AND CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF THE WARM NOSE/...SOME FZRA IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH RATES EXCEEDING 0.05 IN/HR POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY
SNOW AND SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 04/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39309965 38980058 39210103 39600142 40070143 40510132
            41380041 42519864 42609755 42009748 39309965

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0410.html