SPC MD 412

MD 0412 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL/ERN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 092000Z - 092200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL KS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN SE KS. BOTH AREAS HAVE
AT LEAST MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POSING THE GREATEST RISK FOR SVR HAIL.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD ACROSS E-CNTRL
KS...EXTENDING FROM AROUND FNB /IN EXTREME SE NEB/ TO JUST WEST OF
ICT AT 19Z. PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS...THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS CAPPED. A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTED AND THE TEMPERATURE AT WLD JUMPED FROM
73 TO 77 DURING THE LAST HOUR. RAP SOUNDINGS MODIFIED WITH THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES INDICATE ONLY WEAK CAPPING WITH MLCAPE GREATER
THAN 2000 J PEG KG. MODIFIED 17Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE
INHIBITION THAN THE MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS WITH SIMILAR MLCAPE
VALUES. AS SUCH...STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT MAY INCREASE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE
SEWD AND WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY UNDERCUT THESE UPDRAFTS...LIMITING THE
OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL. WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IS STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS.

BEHIND THE FRONT /ACROSS CNTRL KS/...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AS LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES. THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL GIVEN THE COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS HIGH BUT ANY SVR
HAIL WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...OWING PRIMARILY TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37119909 37429970 37850011 38520021 39329984 39689919
            39949833 39969636 39739539 39239489 38859476 38199463
            37329489 37019587 37029694 37069791 37119909

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0412.html