SPC MD 473

MD 0473 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SE KS…N-CNTRL/NE OK…FAR W-CNTRL MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...N-CNTRL/NE OK...FAR W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142236Z - 150030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO A MODERATELY WARM AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SVR COVERAGE
BUT A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS ARE LIKELY. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE
KS. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA IS MIXED TO AROUND 800 MB /PER RAP
SOUNDINGS/ AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
RELATIVELY WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-800 MB IS LIMITING
INSTABILITY...WITH MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPE AROUND 500 J PER
KG. THESE INSTABILITY VALUES MAY BE A LITTLE LOW...SINCE 22Z
RAP-BASED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW DEWPOINT VALUES THAT ARE A
FEW DEGREES TOO LOW. 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS NOT DEPICTED WELL IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FARTHER S...SOME TALLER CU HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF WEAK TRIPLE POINT
NEAR MAJOR COUNTY OK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J PER KG.

GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 45 KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS/HAIL EXISTS. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 04/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35909586 35529741 35859847 36279846 37139737 38429622
            38929574 39199485 38999373 38349343 36619451 35909586

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0473.html