SPC MD 480

MD 0480 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NE OK…FAR SE KS…CNTRL/SRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 PM CDT MON APR 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE OK...FAR SE KS...CNTRL/SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160159Z - 160300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...VAD PROFILES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
REVEAL AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. SGF HAS INCREASED FROM 25 TO 40
KT AT 2 KFT DURING THE LAST TWO HOURS. THIS INCREASING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...FAVORING ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IL SWWD ACROSS SRN MO AND CNTRL OK AND
INTO NW TX. 00Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
1900 J PER KG OF MUCAPE. 00Z ILX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS FARTHER SW.
THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...IN TANDEM WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ABOVE
50 KT AND THE INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
HAIL PRODUCTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL MO. RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

..MOSIER/GOSS.. 04/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   36469587 37879525 39059410 39349303 39299151 39059062
            38609004 38148988 37369047 36399316 36229456 36199550
            36469587

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0480.html