MD 0482 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109… FOR SK KS…NE OK…MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SK KS...NE OK...MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109...
VALID 160608Z - 160715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW
109 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE HAIL BUT
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM
ERN OK EXTENDING NEWD TO JUST SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD MO TO NEAR ST
LOUIS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ABOUT 50 STATUTE MILES TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION...THE SPRINGFIELD WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 50 TO 60 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7.5 C/KM MAY ENABLE THE STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
..BROYLES/HART.. 04/16/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36139601 36149675 36339698 36539691 36599709 36709702
36799673 36989675 37029712 38079716 38079635 38159637
38169599 38079598 38059511 38379506 38369460 38499462
38489409 38959408 38959301 39349272 39629268 39709129
39249073 38859061 38949039 38849015 38829037 38669067
38229071 38249104 37739107 37759122 37839128 37839176
37589175 37619217 37479220 37499265 37079268 37109354
36959357 36939402 36719407 36779462 36699462 36669496
36539500 36559532 36609536 36619577 36429577 36419597
36139601
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0482.html
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