SPC MD 488

MD 0488 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NW OK…SCNTRL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NW OK...SCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170541Z - 170715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF NW OK AND SCNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW
ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 4O TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW TX...WRN OK INTO SCNTRL KS WHERE STRONG
WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STABLE
ACROSS THE MCD AREA...STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE
2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES LATE
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE NWD ACROSS SCNTRL KS WITH
CONVECTION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. ANY SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   39299770 37969932 37409990 36819981 36499955 36259899
            36429801 37949636 38889649 39299770

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0488.html