MD 0493 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO SWRN…CENTRAL…NERN OK…AND SERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO
SWRN...CENTRAL...NERN OK...AND SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 171809Z - 171945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS INCLUDING NORTHWEST TX INTO SWRN...CENTRAL TO NERN OK AND SERN
KS.
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE TORNADO WATCH THREAT AREA...ELEVATED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS W THROUGH NW OK AND SPREAD
INTO SRN KS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE MESOANALYSES INDICATED THE SURFACE
FRONT ORIENTED FROM SW-NE ACROSS OK HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...
EXTENDING FROM INVOF KLTS TO 10 N KOKC TO 35 N KCQB TO 20 W CNU.
THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWD INTO NWRN TX...AND
THEN NWWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FARTHER W ACROSS WEST TX...BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE DRY LINE WILL MIX
EWD WITH THE TRIPLE POINT EVENTUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN NWRN
TX.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTS IN NWRN TX AND E OF
THE DRY LINE ARE QUICKLY ERODING SURFACE INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LIKELY OCCURRING INVOF HASKELL/STONEWALL COUNTIES WHERE
CU HAS BEEN GROWING DEEPER. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BREACH THE CAP AND SUPPORT
TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NWRN TX SOON. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE 15Z RAP. STRONG TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY...INCLUDING TORNADOES.
FARTHER W/NW...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP W OF THE SURFACE FRONT
IN OK...WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING ELEVATED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A SWLY MIDLEVEL JET. WW ISSUANCE FOR THE AREAS W
THROUGH NW OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN.
..PETERS/KERR.. 04/17/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...
AMA...
LAT...LON 34150017 34800000 35949978 37189924 37809704 37969555
37779513 36769498 35049655 33899800 33049938 32910019
33140035 34150017
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0493.html
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