SPC MD 497

MD 0497 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 114… FOR WRN AND CENTRAL MO/EXTREME ERN KS/W CENTRAL IL


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL MO/EXTREME ERN KS/W CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 114...

VALID 172038Z - 172215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 114 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WW 114 THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINING A THREAT.

DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH TRENDS IN
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO
TSTMS LOCATED E OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA MAY BE TENDING TO
TEMPER THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO NWRN MO.  AT
2015Z...THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH BATES
COUNTY MO TO PETTIS COUNTY MO.  THIS FRONT THEN EXTENDED GENERALLY
EWD ALONG AND N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS A WARM FRONT.  THE WARM
SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY STRONGLY UNSTABLE WHILE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 40-50 KT.  THUS...SUPERCELLS
REMAIN LIKELY WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO ENHANCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.

THE DISCRETE STORM LOCATED IN ERN ST CLAIR TO SWRN BENTON COUNTIES
MO APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE THAT
EXTENDED FROM SWRN MO TO 15 E KSZL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED AN
INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH /200-300 M2 PER S2/ TO MAINTAIN A TORNADO
THREAT AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE HODOGRAPH PER THE 18Z SGF
SPECIAL SOUNDING.

..PETERS.. 04/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37139514 39749487 39969333 39989174 40199129 40119064
            39589052 39528966 38998969 39019014 38769018 38099038
            37769066 37779156 37559225 36819209 36759272 36529279
            36489454 36839471 37139514

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0497.html