MD 0509 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 114…117… FOR PORTIONS OF SERN KS…A LARGE PART OF MO…AND W-CNTRL IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN KS...A LARGE PART OF MO...AND
W-CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 114...117...
VALID 180153Z - 180330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 114...117...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS
OF WW114 AND WW117. THE SVR THREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 03Z WW EXPIRATION TIME...POTENTIALLY
WARRANTING A REPLACEMENT WW.
DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EVOLVING
WITHIN AN ANAFRONTAL REGIME N OF A WNW-ENE-ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY
THAT APPROXIMATELY BISECTS MO...AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EWD ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS. SVR HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS EVENING 00Z RAOBS INDICATE STRONG STABILITY
IN THE LOW LEVELS ON THE COOL SIDES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE
CNTRL ROCKIES CONTINUES. ALSO...SVR STORMS OVER OKLAHOMA WILL
ADVANCE INTO MO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE AN INCREASING PROPENSITY TO BECOME ELEVATED AS IT BECOMES
UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT...AND PREFRONTAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
OCCURS...SVR HAIL/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LINGERING SVR THREAT
AFTER 03Z ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE ADDRESSED WITH A
REPLACEMENT WW.
..COHEN.. 04/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38309554 38819362 39799210 39979091 39619013 38479045
37239162 36699292 36569441 37029463 37129613 38309554
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0509.html
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