MD 0513 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 119… FOR SWRN TO NERN MO…FAR SERN KS…PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TO NERN MO...FAR SERN KS...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119... VALID 180446Z - 180615Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS/HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 119. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN DEVELOPING OVER SWRN MO WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR OWING TO MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT S OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT APPROXIMATELY BISECTS MO FROM WSW TO ENE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ENEWD/NEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS -- INCLUDING EMBEDDED BOWING LINE SEGMENTS -- DEVELOPING NEWD FROM CNTRL/NERN OKLAHOMA. WHILE NOCTURNAL COOLING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GROWING CINH FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER SGF VWP DATA -- SUPPORTING AROUND 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH -- MAY YIELD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED QLCS SEGMENTS/LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. SVR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL LIE INVOF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. N OF THIS FRONT...CONVECTION SHOULD BE ROOTED ABOVE THE SFC...WITH SVR HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. HOWEVER...SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO COULD OCCUR WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL COOL DOME IS RELATIVELY MORE SHALLOW -- ESPECIALLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC FRONT -- GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR AND ENSUING STORM-SCALE HYDRODYNAMIC PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS. ..COHEN.. 04/18/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 36519342 36519557 39729213 39728988 36519342
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0513.html
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