SPC MD 548

MD 0548 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NE TX PANHANDLE…NW OK…S CENTRAL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX PANHANDLE...NW OK...S CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222150Z - 222245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE BY
22-23Z FROM THE NE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO S CENTRAL KS.  THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BECOME
NECESSARY BY ABOUT 23Z.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS CONVECTION FROM
THE INTERSECTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND THE DRYLINE IN THE NE TX
PANHANDLE...NEWD ALONG THE TROUGH TO THE INTERSECTION WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO THE W OF P28.  THE DEEPENING CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  THE DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT FEATURES SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
BUOYANCY FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK NEAR THE SRN
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION...WHILE STORMS FARTHER N ON THE FRONT IN KS
WILL TEND TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING COLD AIR MASS WITH TIME.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY BY ABOUT 23Z.

..THOMPSON/DIAL.. 04/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35480033 35720054 36160053 36619989 37149966 37399953
            37559918 37819856 37839839 37819795 37489758 36969760
            36299795 35639915 35459987 35480033

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0548.html