MD 0550 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136… FOR S-CNTRL KS…N-CNTRL/NWRN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS...N-CNTRL/NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136... VALID 230048Z - 230215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SVR WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136. DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT MOVED OFF A WEAKLY BAROCLINIC WIND-SHIFT AXIS HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE UNSTABLE SECTOR IN N-CNTRL/NWRN OK. INFLOW FOR THESE STORMS IS CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE PER THE 00Z OUN RAOB...WHICH INDICATES AROUND 45-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. NOTABLE INHIBITION CENTERED AROUND 760 MB SHOULD KEEP PREFRONTAL CONVECTION DISCRETE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN OKLAHOMA...PROVIDED AT LEAST SOME SFC-BOUNDARY-ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP SHEAR VECTORS. NSSL WDSS-2 MESH DATA INDICATE GENERALLY QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND THIS CORROBORATES WITH RECENT STORM REPORTS. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT...SUCCEEDED BY 2-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 4-8 MB...CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD...CONVECTION IN S-CNTRL KS IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. FRONTAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL OK AFTER 02Z...WITH CONVECTION PROBABLY BECOMING QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY THE SFC FRONT. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. ..COHEN.. 04/23/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35979678 35099998 37080003 37989680 35979678
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0550.html
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