SPC MD 551

MD 0551 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136… FOR NW OK AND S CENTRAL KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0925 PM CDT MON APR 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NW OK AND S CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136...

VALID 230225Z - 230400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONGOING SUPERCELLS MAY GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY 03-04Z AS THEY
APPROACH THE EDGE OF THE WATCH IN CENTRAL OK...THOUGH WILL MONITOR
FOR POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL EXTENSION OF A FEW COUNTIES AND 1-2
HOURS...IF NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...THE ONGOING SUPERCELLS ACROSS CUSTER AND GRANT COUNTIES
IN OK HAVE LIKELY PASSED PEAK INTENSITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS COOLS AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
INCREASES.  THUS...IN THE ABSENCE OF A LARGE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SURGE INTO THIS AREA AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS...IT APPEARS THE THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH
03-04Z.  AT THIS TIME...A NEW WATCH FOR CENTRAL OK DOES NOT APPEAR
NECESSARY.  A SMALL PART OF W CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME/SPACE
IF THE SRN SUPERCELL DOES NOT WEAKEN AS EXPECTED.  ALSO...THERE WILL
BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION INTO A
CLUSTER...THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK INTO CENTRAL OK WILL BE
TEMPERED BY INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..THOMPSON.. 04/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36189713 35739772 35399856 35369953 35519987 35689968
            36009892 36939808 37599734 37809687 37729649 37179653
            36539684 36189713

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0551.html