SPC MD 598

MD 0598 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071938Z - 072215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER WRN KS WITH LOWER TSTM COVERAGE FARTHER S OVER THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE.  ROBUST UPDRAFTS WOULD POSE SOME THREAT FOR A
STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUST...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW OVER
WRN KS WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDING OUTWARD.  AN INCREASINGLY
AGITATED BAND OF CU IS DRAPED SWD ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT
NEAR THE SWRN KS/SERN CO BORDER WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING S INTO W
TX.  E OF THE DRYLINE...THE WRN EDGE OF A NARROW PLUME OF SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MID 40S SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ OVERLAPS A
THERMAL RIDGE PROTRUDING NEWD FROM NERN NM INTO SWRN KS.  DESPITE A
SLOW DEPARTURE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEB/NRN KS PROVIDING
LESSENING UPPER SUPPORT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE REMAINING CAP.  AN
EVENTUAL EROSION OF THE CAP IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON /MAINLY
21-00Z/...INITIALLY OVER SWRN KS...AND PERHAPS FARTHER S OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE.

AREA VWP/S SHOW LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY IN THE MID
LEVELS...SUPPORTIVE OF SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES UPSTREAM OF THE 12Z DDC RAOB AND SAMPLED BY THE AMA
RAOB...WOULD PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE MODEST PW.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH MATURE STORMS AND NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR SOME CONSOLIDATION OF MERGING GUSTS FRONTS
AND MAY LOCALLY CONCENTRATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG-SEVERE WIND
GUST.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   35609997 35180056 35440104 38220141 39040105 39060037
            38639985 35609997

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