SPC MD 605

MD 0605 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149… FOR KS…OK…NW TX


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149...

VALID 082258Z - 090030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST ACROSS NW
TX...WRN OK...CNTRL OK AND SRN KS THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY
IN THE SRN HALF OF WW 149.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004 MB LOW OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE FAR
ERN TX PANHANDLE. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN TO THE 2000 TO 3000
J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS WW 149 SHOWS 850
TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT IS
IDEAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. SFC OBS SHOW TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT
SPEEDS RESULTING IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALSO...A TORNADO THREAT MAY
DEVELOP WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK WHERE STRONG
DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY PRESENT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO SOMEWHAT LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND A
LACK OF A FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET.

..BROYLES/HART.. 05/08/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...
AMA...

LAT...LON   38309633 38649703 38579749 38269820 37929884 36829960
            35999965 35309978 34690011 33830075 33300071 32950029
            32889973 32909884 33409758 34559692 36939581 38309633

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0605.html