SPC MD 65

MD 0065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290651Z - 290815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATEST TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY FROM JUST N OF TOP SWD TO NEAR
CNU WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST /S OF IRK/.
THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR...PERHAPS ALONG A
ZONE OF ENHANCED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A 50-60 KT SWLY
LLJ.  MODIFICATION OF 00Z TOP/LMN SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS INDICATES ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 700 J/KG.

IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BECOME
FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL A
HEIGHTENED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
UNFOLD...CURRENT VAD DATA FROM TULSA OK NWD THROUGH SPRINGFIELD AND
KANSAS CITY MO INDICATE LARGE...CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE CLOSELY BEING MONITORED FOR ANY FURTHER
INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY WHICH WOULD PROMPT THE NECESSITY OF A
WATCH.

..MEAD.. 01/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37859518 38919526 39689514 40079377 39569239 38389228
            37439327 37209385 37339500 37859518

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0065.html