SPC MD 657

MD 0657 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SWRN NEB…NERN CO AND NWRN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB...NERN CO AND NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161759Z - 162000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL THROUGH WRN NEB.
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING
ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE MESOSCALE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED OVER
NERN CO. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...AND DIABATIC WARMING WILL DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR
GENERALLY BELOW 35 KT SUGGESTS MOSTLY MULTICELL STORM MODES...BUT
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A THREAT OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41650307 41110138 40960017 39770069 39670199 40890324
            41650307

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0657.html