SPC MD 66

MD 0066 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NWRN TX INTO WRN/CNTRL OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290928Z - 291100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 12Z.  CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL KS
SWWD THROUGH THE OK PNHDL AND INTO FAR NERN MN.  A DRYLINE
INTERSECTS THE FRONT NEAR P28 BEFORE EXTENDING WSWWD THROUGH WRN
OK...NWRN TX INTO THE TX PERMIAN BASIN.  A CLUSTER OF TSTMS WHICH
INITIATED ABOUT 08Z NEAR LBB HAVE SINCE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE
WHILE PROGRESSING NEWD TO NEAR CDS.  WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A NOTABLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER EAST OF THE DRYLINE...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE RATHER
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT STORMS COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH 12Z FROM NEAR THE DRYLINE-FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NWRN OK
SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  A PREDOMINANT LINEAR STORM MODE IS EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OBSERVED BY
AREA VAD AND PROFILER DATA...A RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST
WITH STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD.. 01/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   33549990 34759976 36409949 36829903 36939829 36859760
            36189721 35299749 34439819 33759880 33449934 33549990

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0066.html