SPC MD 662

MD 0662 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF ERN CO…WRN KS…OK PANHANDLE…WRN TX


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162048Z - 162215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS WITH SVR WIND
GUSTS MAY EXIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE 0-3-KM-AGL LAYER
ALONG/W OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE ARE SUPPORTING DEEP PBL
CIRCULATIONS INVOF THE DRYLINE. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS ALONG THE N/S EXTENT OF THE
DRYLINE...WHERE MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS INDICATE LITTLE...IF
ANY...REMAINING MLCINH. THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS
FAR HAS BEEN OVER PARTS OF ERN CO...WHERE RELATIVELY ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CONTRIBUTING TO
REDUCED ENTRAINMENT FOR INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY IN CO...AS WELL AS ACROSS LOCATIONS
FARTHER S INTO W TX WHERE RELATIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER
TEMPERATURES EXIST INVOF MODESTLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE
DRYLINE.

HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LARGELY LACKING...AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LOW. FURTHERMORE...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA...FOSTERING A PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE.
REGARDLESS...INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION/DOWNDRAFTS MAY SUPPORT A VERY ISOLATED
SVR WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET
AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER NOCTURNALLY STABILIZES.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 05/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...

LAT...LON   38640286 38980228 38740143 37180110 33260100 31920129
            31660197 31860247 32500265 33920284 37520289 38640286

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0662.html