SPC MD 67

MD 0067 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN KS INTO WRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291141Z - 291315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING AND
PERHAPS TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID MORNING AND A
WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
DSM SWWD TO TOP TO ICT AND INTO FAR NWRN OK WITH A RADAR-DERIVED
MOTION OF 305/15 KT.  FARTHER TO THE S...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN
STRENGTH AND NUMBER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF WRN
AND NRN OK...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS PROGRESSIVELY
OVERSPREADING THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.  THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WELL HANDLED BY THE LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER ERN KS.

STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  TORNADOES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AND/OR WITH BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EVOLVING
LINE.

..MEAD.. 01/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37499630 38639518 39099489 39489384 38799315 37769313
            37289364 37239426 37139492 37189610 37499630

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0067.html