SPC MD 686

MD 0686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR E-CNTRL AND NERN KS / FAR WRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND NERN KS / FAR WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 190300Z - 190330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SWATHS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
SEEMINGLY LIKELY CONCURRENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE QLCS FROM THE
WEST.  A SEVERE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED FOR ERN KS AND FAR
WRN MO OVER THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
QLCS WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES IN ADDITION TO AN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OVER OTTAWA COUNTY.  DESPITE APPRECIABLE CINH DUE
TO A GRADUALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
THE H7-H5 LAYER /AOA 9 DEG C PER KM/ SHOULD ACT TO SUSTAIN THIS QLCS
INTO ERN KS AND OUT OF TORNADO WATCH 170 AND 174 BY THE 04-05Z
PERIOD.  LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THIS QLCS WILL BE AFFECTING
TOPEKA AROUND 0500Z-0530Z AND THE GREATER KANSAS CITY METRO DURING
THE 06-07Z PERIOD.  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG
WINDS...A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT WOULD SEEMINGLY EXIST WITH ANY
LONGER-LIVED EMBEDDED SUPERCELL MESOCYCLONE OR APPRECIABLY MORE
INTENSE QLCS-GENERATED MESOVORTEX.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/19/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38289641 39859622 40079489 39599442 38999429 38469436
            38049480 37789602 38289641

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