MD 0694 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NERN OK…SERN KS AND FAR WEST CENTRAL-SWRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN OK...SERN KS AND FAR WEST
CENTRAL-SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191025Z - 191230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND/OR A LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PART OF NERN OK INTO SERN KS
THROUGH 12-13Z. LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL THREAT AREA WITH THE NERN
OK/SERN KS TSTM CLUSTER EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
ALONG THE SERN KS/SWRN MO BORDER 1-2 HRS AFTER SUNRISE PRECLUDES THE
ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE
IN TSTM INTENSITY AND THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN LINE OVER NERN OK
/OSAGE COUNTY/ INTO SERN KS /CHAUTAUQUA AND SWRN WILSON COUNTIES/
BETWEEN 09-10Z. THIS UPTICK IN TSTM STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION IS
LOCATED ALONG THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A SRN-ERN KS/NRN OK MCS...AND
PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES IS SITUATED WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WAA AND RESIDUAL MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING EWD
FROM SERN KS/NERN OK. THESE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 8 C PER KM/ COULD MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL EVENT AND/OR A STRONGER WIND GUST
FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 HOURS.
MEANWHILE...IR IMAGERY SHOWED WARMING CLOUD TOP TRENDS WITH THE
PARENT MCS...AND THE 05-07Z HRRR RUNS EACH INDICATED THE DEMISE OF
THIS TSTM SYSTEM BY 12-13Z AS THE ERN PERIPHERY OF ONGOING STORMS
REACHES THE SERN KS/SWRN MO BORDER AROUND THAT TIME.
..PETERS/HART.. 05/19/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37599591 37939545 38139454 37819436 37169446 36899481
36679529 36549574 36569597 36799607 37599591
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0694.html
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