SPC MD 712

MD 0712 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 181… FOR ERN – NERN – AND N-CNTRL KS / SERN NEB / NWRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN - NERN - AND N-CNTRL KS / SERN NEB / NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181...

VALID 200055Z - 200200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 181 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT IS SEEMINGLY CONFINED TO THE QLCS ALONG
THE KS/MO BORDER AND OVER SERN KS.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF N-CNTRL
AND NERN KS IN A RAIN-COOLED/PARTIAL CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS
WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S.  SOME VIGOR HAS BEEN NOTED ON THE
WRN EDGE OF THE TORNADO WATCH OVER N-CNTRL KS WHERE UPSTREAM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR PERHAPS A LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUST/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT.

FARTHER E ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER...A QLCS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY.  KEAX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCED POCKETS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE QLCS
PASSAGE.  ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE MODE...A NON-ZERO TORNADIC MESOVORTEX THREAT IS STILL
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE OVER THIS REGION.

MORE CELLULAR STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER S-CNTRL KS AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO INGEST A MOISTURE RICH/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE S.
STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  A TORNADO OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS THE 50 KT LLJ FOCUSES TOWARDS THIS REGION.

..SMITH.. 05/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
DDC...

LAT...LON   38249847 39529818 40479759 40909670 40589476 40119395
            38079512 37029576 36939683 37449706 38009608 38529606
            38249847

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0712.html