SPC MD 721

MD 0721 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 186… FOR SWRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 186...

VALID 200449Z - 200545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 186 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL PROBABLY PERSIST BEYOND THE
0600Z WATCH EXPIRATION TIME.  A LOCAL EXTENSION-IN-TIME OR A NEW
WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE OVER
FAR SERN KS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SWRN MO AND
MAINTAIN SOME SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DMGG WINDS.  A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL SEEMINGLY EXIST PREDICATED ON EITHER
A STORM DEVELOPING INTO A SUPERCELL AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS
/LOW PROBABILITY/ OR ANY MESOVORTICES THAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE
CLUSTER MOVES EWD.  GIVEN A STRONG 60 KT LLJ SAMPLED BY THE SGF
VWP...STRONG MASS FLUX INTO THIS REGION WILL ACT TO SUSTAIN THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY BEYOND THE 06Z WATCH EXPIRATION TIME.

..SMITH.. 05/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36549335 36569453 37119500 37779455 38039359 38229227
            37809153 36899181 36549335

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0721.html