MD 0723 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 188… FOR NERN OK…FAR NWRN AR AND FAR SERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...FAR NWRN AR AND FAR SERN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 188...
VALID 200744Z - 200945Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 188 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN OSAGE COUNTY OK...AND TO THE N OF WW 188 IN FAR
SERN KS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL AS STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRAIN ENEWD FROM NWRN-NRN OSAGE COUNTY THROUGH THE FAR
SERN KS COUNTIES /FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL DETAILS...REFER TO
THE MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSIONS ISSUED BY WPC/.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE STORMS THAT
WERE AFFECTING NERN OK AT THE ISSUANCE OF WW 188 ARE NOW MOVING EWD
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MO. THE ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH WRIGHT TO TANEY COUNTIES MO...AND THEN WSWWD
THROUGH FAR NWRN AR INTO NERN OK TO THE NORTH OF KTUL TO PAWNEE
COUNTY. A STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS GREATLY REDUCED THE TORNADO
THREAT...WHILE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS LOCATED IN NRN OSAGE COUNTY
OK TO THE FAR SERN KS COUNTIES POSE AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.
CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL WINDS AND 500 MB TEMPS AOB -15 C WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 8 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PER A VEERING SLY 60-70 KT LLJ WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12Z FROM NRN OSAGE COUNTY OK INTO
FAR SERN KS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KT WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL GIVEN
FAVORABLE CLOUD LAYER THERMODYNAMICS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS IN OSAGE
COUNTY INDICATED THE WRN MOST STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE ENEWD...
SUGGESTING THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO A VEERING TREND OF THE LLJ TO
SWLY PER AREA VWPS.
..PETERS.. 05/20/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36339465 36189659 36419696 37049683 37329588 37459477
37389459 36339465
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0723.html
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