SPC MD 724

MD 0724 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN KS…W-CNTRL MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201346Z - 201445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF TSTMS HAS FORMED WITHIN THE PAST HR
ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS AND INTO W-CNTRL MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
POSE A PRIMARY RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...AND A LESSER THREAT FOR STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER TSTMS WILL BE
SUSTAINED FOR LONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF
INTENSIFYING CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE OVER S-CNTRL KS...IN
THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH HAS MOVED INTO CNTRL MO AND
HAS WEAKENED. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS /E.G. SGF AND TOP/ SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LOCATED
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...POSING A PRIMARY RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR MORE THAN 1-2
HRS WITH NEWD PROGRESSION INTO W-CNTRL MO...WHERE CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE STABILIZED THE AIR MASS SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...SHOULD TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
INTENSITY OR STRENGTHEN...AND SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING ROOTED WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38359312 37809417 37429535 37449591 37579620 37929622
            38419550 38869480 39099426 39149368 39089330 38779300
            38359312

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0724.html