SPC MD 728

MD 0728 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 190…191… FOR CNTRL INTO NERN OK AND SERN KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN OK AND SERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190...191...

VALID 201931Z - 202130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 190...191...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN OK.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE GRADUALLY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT FROM NWRN
TX ACROSS OK AND INTO SERN KS. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA...AS WELL AS PROFILER DATA INDICATE A VEER-BACK PATTERN BETWEEN
850 AND 700 MB ESPECIALLY FROM NRN TX INTO SRN OK. THIS WEAKNESS IN
THE HODOGRAPH MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST ROTATION UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT TERM...WIND PROFILES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION FROM CNTRL/NERN OK INTO SERN KS...WITH
0-1 SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. IN ADDITION...CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR A
ROBUST CU FIELD GENERALLY E OF I-35 AND N OF I-40...WHERE THICK
STRATUS PREVIOUSLY EXISTED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND EXTREME INSTABILITY
PROFILES WILL FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND STORMS MAY CHANGE
CHARACTER QUICKLY AS THEY TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS A VERY MOIST WARM
SECTOR WITH LOCALLY BACKED SFC WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 05/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36309535 35429621 35279718 35409773 35589777 36059737
            36699692 37239672 37909590 37989537 37839501 37409478
            36949491 36309535

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