MD 0807 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262046Z - 262145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE INVOF
THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY CO ALONG A WEAK WIND SHIFT THAT HAS SETTLED SWD
ON THE BACKSIDE THE SYNOPTIC LOW SITUATED OVER FAR SWRN NEB. THIS
CONVECTION IS FORMING WEST OF THE DRYLINE WITHIN A HOT AND DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. DEEP-LAYER SWLY STEERING FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE DRYLINE WHERE THE CAP IS
WEAKENING WITH ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SHOULD
THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD...STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD ENSUE WITHIN A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...A RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST GIVEN
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE.
..MEAD.. 05/26/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37640064 37850096 38820119 39730113 40000078 39960043
39739984 39029963 38249985 37710024 37640064
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0807.html
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