MD 0816 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225…226… FOR NW MO…NE KS…CNTRL IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NW MO...NE KS...CNTRL IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...226...
VALID 271120Z - 271245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
225...226...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH TIME AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT WATCHES.
DISCUSSION...A MULTI-SEGMENTED LINEAR MCS IS ONGOING FROM JUST EAST
OF DES MOINES TO JUST NORTH OF KANSAS CITY. THE SRN PART OF THE MCS
STILL HAS A BOW-STRUCTURE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE BOW IS
LOCATED IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH A LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET JUST BEHIND THE
LINEAR MCS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES WEAK IN AREAS
SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS THE MCS MOVES SSEWD THIS MORNING.
..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39429498 39439559 39239558 39249605 39569602 39599625
40019618 40009534 40609578 40589488 40959490 40929353
41209353 41189333 41859337 41869325 42209321 42229346
42569345 42539309 42289300 42209299 42219275 41569275
41569287 41189290 41189310 40629303 40609264 40369264
40349286 39689287 39709332 39599328 39609379 39519377
39539417 39419418 39459458 39559456 39539510 39429498
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0816.html
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