SPC MD 823

MD 0823 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF W CENTRAL KS INTO WRN OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W CENTRAL KS INTO WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272236Z - 280000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM W CENTRAL
KS SWD INTO SWRN OK MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK -- MUCH OF WHICH IS
SHROUDED IN CIRRUS -- THUS HINDERING A CLEAR VIEW OF THE STATE OF CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG MOST OF THE BOUNDARY.  HAVING SAID THAT...CU
CONTINUES DEVELOPING NWD INTO SWRN OK FROM ONGOING STORMS INVOF
CDS...AND SOME HINTS OF DEVELOPMENT ARE ALSO INDICATED NWD INTO KS
-- INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM CENTRAL KS SEWD INTO THE ICT AREA.

WITH A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT E OF THE DRYLINE AND
LOW-LEVEL SLYS OVERLAYED BY MID-LEVEL WSWLYS NEAR 40 KT...SHEAR
REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  THUS -- THREAT
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EVIDENT...AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED TORNADO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS W CENTRAL KS INVOF THE WRN
FRINGE OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SIGNS OF INCREASED DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 05/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   38919624 38099617 36929705 34799764 34650008 36629951
            38079930 38889969 38919624

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0823.html