MD 0837 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR E-CNTRL/ERN KS….NE MO…SRN IA…FAR SW NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/ERN KS....NE MO...SRN IA...FAR SW NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 281837Z - 282030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM S-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO SERN IA. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH PRIMARY SVR THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...SOME GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...AND STRONG WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ONE OR
MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS AREA.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LEE LOW ACROSS W-CNTRL KS/WRN
OK PANHANDLE WITH A SUBTLE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING NEWD TO ANOTHER
SFC LOW IN CNTRL IA. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING
ACROSS CNTRL KS AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY. FARTHER
NE...CLOUDS ARE PROHIBITING SIGNIFICANT WARMING BUT A LOW-LEVEL JET
FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. 12Z RAOBS SAMPLED THE EML
WELL AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 2000-4000 J PER
KG/ EXISTS AREAWIDE.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR GIVEN THE COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN -- I.E SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES -- THROUGHOUT THE REGION IN ADDITION TO AN MCV MOVING EWD
INTO N-CNTRL KS AND THE ONGOING TSTM ACROSS E-CNTRL KS. MOST LIKELY
AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING
NWWD ACROSS N-CNTRL/NE KS AND FAR SE NEB. INITIATION IN AREAS
FARTHER SW /S-CNTRL KS/ WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...IF INITIATION OCCURS AT ALL.
GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 TO 50 KT/...AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS...ROTATING
STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER...INCLUDING
SIGNIFICANT HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A FEW
TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED.
..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/28/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
GID...
LAT...LON 40159167 39419233 38209355 37759475 37939758 38629816
39779769 40839663 41579512 42209337 42299206 41969107
41609088 41169103 40659122 40159167
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0837.html
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