SPC MD 840

MD 0840 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL HIGH PLAINS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282008Z - 282215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF
SVR STORMS PRECLUDES HIGHER WATCH PROBABILITIES BUT THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN A RECENT INCREASE IN CB
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 12Z LBF SOUNDING AND RUC-BASED MESOANALYSIS
REVEAL CINH REMAINS BUT CONTINUED STRONG HEATING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL LIKELY ELIMINATE CINH SOON. THERE IS SOME DISSOCIATION
BETWEEN THE BEST SHEAR /ACROSS SE WY...NEB PANHANDLE...AND FAR SW
SD/ AND BEST INSTABILITY /ACROSS WRN KS/...LENDING UNCERTAINTY TO
THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SVR STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR BOTH AROUND 30 KT/
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND...GIVEN THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...SOME SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY THREATS
ARE SVR WINDS AND HAIL. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40480089 39410031 38400144 38210255 38550310 40410421
            42060524 43350523 43920444 44120296 43430186 42450163
            40480089

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