SPC MD 842

MD 0842 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 233… FOR NE KS THRU NRN MO AND ADJACENT SRN IA


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS THRU NRN MO AND ADJACENT SRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 233...

VALID 282252Z - 290015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 233 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES...INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ANOTHER FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTH OF FALLS CITY NEB AND
BETWEEN CONCORDIA AND SALINA.  THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF VERY
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING NOSES INTO HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OVER THE LOWER EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.  BENEATH 50
KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE AND GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
INTO THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER AREA TOWARD 01-03Z.

..KERR.. 05/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38929760 39909749 40749532 41109413 41279317 41229217
            40969097 40669053 39949082 39769205 39569406 39069532
            38599673 38929760

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0842.html