SPC MD 852

MD 0852 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEB…WESTERN IA


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEB...WESTERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291354Z - 291600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SEVERE
STORMS...ARE AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEB.  THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA.  WE ARE MONITORING TRENDS FOR THE NEED OF A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED REMNANT MCV OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR SLN.  ENHANCED LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A SHIELD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF EAR TO WEST OF DSM.
ISOLATED CELLS IN THIS COMPLEX HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN INTENSIFICATION
AND SOME RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS
AREA...MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LIFT.
MEANWHILE...BROKEN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO
OCCUR...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHILE OVERALL SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WILL MONITOR TRENDS
IN ONGOING CONVECTION FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBLE WW.

..HART/MEAD.. 05/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   39999938 41419968 42419889 43139702 43439450 42879344
            41839324 40999413 40329691 39999938

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0852.html