SPC MD 859

MD 0859 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR ERN KS…SERN NEB


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 292012Z - 292215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN KS/NEB.  A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS TWO CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF WW/S 239 AND 240.  ONE CLUSTER IS OVER
PRATT/STAFFORD COUNTIES KS...AND THE SECOND CLUSTER IS OVER
HAMILTON/CLAY/FILLMORE COUNTIES NEB.  MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP REMAINING.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS AND TRACK INTO EASTERN KS/NEB WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN SOME RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

..HART/MEAD.. 05/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   41099808 41599734 40879585 38339517 37039657 37709787
            41099808

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0859.html