MD 0864 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 292320Z - 300045Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION ACROSS SERN KS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS SERN KS WITH MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT. STORMS OVER SCNTRL KS SO FAR HAVE REMAINED POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 60 KT THIS EVENING...AND THIS COULD REINVIGORATE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. THE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AS LLJ STRENGTHENS...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS THE STABILIZING SFC LAYER...SO ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ..DIAL/KERR.. 05/29/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37269750 38409702 38389572 37109570 37269750
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