SPC MD 873

MD 0873 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249… FOR NE OK…NW AR


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249...

VALID 300818Z - 300945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW
249 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 249.

DISCUSSION...AN MCS...CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM SCNTRL KS SEWD ACROSS
NE OK INTO NW AR...IS LOCATED NEAR AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WHERE MUCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD ENABLE THE MCS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK MOVING
NEWD ACROSS ERN KS...SW MO AND NRN AR. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. IN SPITE
OF BEING ELEVATED...THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FASTER MOVING LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35509801 35989799 36069720 36539552 34659539 34119666
            34209745 34809814 35509801

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0873.html