SPC MD 877

MD 0877 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR OZARK PLATEAU


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...OZARK PLATEAU

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 301644Z - 301815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT MCS
OVER SERN KS INTO FAR NRN OK HAS BEGUN TO TIGHTEN UP WITH UPDRAFTS
FORMING ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FARTHER SE...MORNING CLUSTERS
HAVE INCREASED IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ACROSS ERN OK. WITHIN
A RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND POCKETS OF GREATER INSOLATION
YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS
SHOULD FURTHER BLOSSOM DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREA VWP DATA DO DEPICT
VEER-BACK-VEER DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WHICH SHOULD TEND TO FOSTER
CONTINUED CLUSTER/LINE MODE. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR DOES EXIST TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   38009509 38289418 38659267 38579216 38229197 36209244
            34989350 34699393 34649513 35729543 36559601 37009583
            38009509

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