SPC MD 890

MD 0890 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ERN NEB…FAR NERN KS…FAR NWRN MO AND WRN IA


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...FAR NERN KS...FAR NWRN MO AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 310041Z - 310245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL APPROACHING SVR
SIZES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.  GIVEN A LIMITED DURATION
FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PART OF
EAST CENTRAL TO SERN NEB INDICATED AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ENEWD INTO ERN NEB/NERN KS.  FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS
TROUGH AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING
EWD ACROSS THE WRN EXTENT OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING THIS RECENT RAMP UP IN TSTM INTENSITY/
COVERAGE.  00Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE STORM MODE WILL
REMAIN MULTICELLULAR.  ONCE THE SUN SETS...THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT.

..PETERS/KERR.. 05/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40699690 41759690 42439627 42549562 42219519 41479492
            40889487 40229511 39879542 39909629 40229660 40229660
            40699690

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0890.html