MD 0894 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 310247Z - 310345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS BETWEEN 03-04Z. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...BUT ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. DISCUSSION...RAPID REFRESH AND NAM DATA INDICATE MOISTURE RECOVERING NWD THROUGH ERN KS ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ ABOVE THE SFC AND BENEATH ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT CONVECTIVE SIGNAL ACROSS ERN KS. TRENDS IN WV IMAGERY IMPLY A ZONE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME COLLOCATED WITH AXIS OF MORE GRADUAL ISENTROPIC LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..DIAL/KERR.. 05/31/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37659644 37589874 38279928 39039833 38739599 37659644
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