SPC MD 898

MD 0898 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NE KS…NW MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 310705Z - 310830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  THE NEED FOR A
WATCH IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
RISK...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY IN A ZONE OF
LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...ON THE SE FRINGE OF A
SPEED MAX EJECTING EWD OVER EXTREME N CENTRAL KS.  THE CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW RESIDUAL COOL AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION...THOUGH THE PRIMARY MOISTURE AND
LAPSE RATE FEEDS REMAIN INTACT ABOVE THE SURFACE.  GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM AND
STRONG SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  IF SOME ELEVATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BECOME ESTABLISHED...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

..THOMPSON.. 05/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39219687 39729563 39769448 39459390 39219380 38969403
            38689462 38539617 38559690 38679736 38989728 39219687

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