SPC MD 905

MD 0905 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NERN OK…SERN KS…CNTRL/SWRN MO


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...CNTRL/SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311849Z - 312045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HIGHLY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR WILL YIELD
SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS OF LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/...TORNADOES
/POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...TCU/SMALL CBS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED ALONG A
COUPLE OF SW/NE-ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS ACROSS FAR SERN KS.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
FOSTER DEEPENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 18Z SGF
RAOB SUGGESTS MLCIN HAS BECOME MINIMAL WITH PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO RISK. THIS THREAT MAY BE
MAXIMIZED INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL MO.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38729452 38889303 38549115 38249114 37259230 36619347
            36379436 36349485 36549569 36879592 37219597 38029543
            38729452

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0905.html