MD 0908 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 262… FOR WCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 262...
VALID 312158Z - 312330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 262 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL UNDERGO A RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY OVER WCNTRL AND SWRN OK. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MATURE
INTO SUPERCELLS AND BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES AS THEY MOVE EWD AND ENEWD TOWARD CNTRL OK THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN KS
SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK THEN WWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM WRN TX NWD INTO WRN OK WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE.
TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CUMULUS CONGESTUS INCREASING WITHIN
THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS SWRN OK AND THE
FIRST STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION
NEAR WATONGA. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 4000+
J/KG MLCAPE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AROUND 50 KT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT WINDS NEAR THE SFC ARE BACKED TO SSELY
ACROSS CNTRL-WCNTRL OK...AND HODOGRAPHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
SIZE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS RAPIDLY ORGANIZING INTO
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES
AS THEY MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DIAL.. 05/31/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34209866 35269857 36109796 36999650 36899524 35979525
34009655 34209866
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0908.html
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