SPC MD 946

MD 0946 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR THE OK PANHANDLE…NRN-ERN TX PANHANDLE…SW KS…WRN OK


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...THE OK PANHANDLE...NRN-ERN TX PANHANDLE...SW
KS...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031906Z - 032030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE...THE NRN-ERN TX PANHANDLE...SW KS AND WRN OK OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE MCD AREA
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW IN SERN CO WHERE TEMPS
ARE IN THE UPPER 90S F. HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING
ALONG THE THERMAL AXIS WHERE SFC-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 40
DEGREES F. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD...THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F WHICH WILL ENABLE
THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS WITH EWD EXTENT.  0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN
THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE ACROSS THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES. THIS
ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENABLE THE STORMS TO HAVE A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS DOWNDRAFTS ARE ENHANCED BY THE LARGE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS DEVELOPS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37070246 36480250 35750211 35150154 34730088 34730005
            35089943 36019897 37079912 37990004 38090068 37980142
            37640207 37070246

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