MD 0947 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN NEB…S-CENTRAL SD…NWRN KS.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT MON JUN 03 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN NEB...S-CENTRAL SD...NWRN KS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032223Z - 040030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALONG DRYLINE...COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM EXISTING CONVECTION OVER
THIS CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH CLUSTERS AND LINES OF CONVECTION
WITH DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL...HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS MAY
LIMIT COVERAGE/DURATION. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE N OF WW 273 MAY BE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM
OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL SD...ACROSS CHERRY/GARDEN COUNTIES
NEB...INTO NERN CO. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SWD OVER ERN CO AND
SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS WRN/NRN NEB...MERGING THIS EVENING WITH SFC LOW
ANALYZED JUST NNE GLD. SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING THAT
LOW IS VERY WELL EVIDENT IN GLD REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS...AND SHORT
BAND OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NEARBY PORTIONS RAWLINS/THOMAS
COUNTIES KS. SFC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS MOIST AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THAT CONVECTION SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS...CHARACTERIZED BY NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS. BRANCH OF THAT MOIST AXIS
ALSO EXTENDS NWD FROM HYS-BBW-ICR...POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH
COLD FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL SD AND PORTIONS NRN NEB SANDHILLS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG FRONT...AND HAS OCCURRED IN
DRY AIR OF SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SERN WY. LATTER ACTIVITY
MAY CROSS FRONT AND DRYLINE AND INTENSIFY UPON REACHING HIGHER-PW
AIR MASS.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NARROW CORRIDOR OF LITTLE OR NO MLCINH
REMAINING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT AND DRYLINE...BENEATH 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE. BUOYANCY DROPS OFF SHARPLY AND CINH INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM THESE BOUNDARIES INTO SRN
SD...NEB AND NRN KS. DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SW OF NRN PLAINS
CYCLONE...40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...AND SMALL POCKETS OF
NEAR 150 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZATION OF ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN GROW UPSCALE ENOUGH TO SURVIVE STRONGER CAPPING
FARTHER E...VIA STORM-SCALE PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS AND LIFT.
..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/03/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ICT...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...
CYS...
LAT...LON 38250089 39410133 40980171 41360279 42900097 44660026
44569875 43259919 41439990 40389964 39039891 38069918
38250089
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0947.html
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