SPC MD 959

MD 0959 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276… FOR PORTIONS ERN CO…WRN KS.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN CO...WRN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276...

VALID 050035Z - 050230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BKN BAND OF TSTMS - INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS
LOCATED OVER SRN LINCOLN COUNTY AND LAS ANIMAS/BENT COUNTY LINE AS
OF 00Z -- SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD TO SEWD OVER WW AREA WITH CONTINUING
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SVR GUSTS.  A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.  SERN CO CONVECTION MAY SHIFT SEWD INTO
WW 277...REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 958 FOR MORE DETAILS FROM OK
PANHANDLE SWD.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT FROM SERN
NEB SWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/SWRN KS AND NRN PANHANDLE OF TX...BUT WITH
DIFFUSE/SECONDARY FRONTAL SEGMENT FROM W-CENTRAL KS WWD ACROSS
PORTIONS NRN PROWERS OR KIOWA COUNTIES CO.  LATTER BOUNDARY MAY BE
PROVIDING ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND BACKED/CONFLUENT SFC
WINDS...IN TURN ENHANCING BOTH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW FOR CONVECTION MOVING INTO THAT REGION.  BROAD
FETCH OF ELYS W OF MAIN FRONTAL ZONE ALSO ARE ADVECTING MOISTURE WWD
AND UPSLOPE OVER THIS AREA...FURTHER AIDING IN MAINTAINING STG-SVR
TSTM POTENTIAL.  MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG IS EVIDENT INVOF SECONDARY
BOUNDARY...WHICH ALSO LIES CLOSE TO SFC MOIST AXIS...AS WELL AS
45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES RELATED TO BOTH SFC ELYS AND
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX.  AVAILABLE/INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH EWD EXTENT.  SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF SERN
CO ACTIVITY INTO MCS THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN KS AND INTO
NRN PORTIONS WW 277...INVOF SFC THETAE MAX EXTENDING FROM SERN CO
ESEWD INTO NWRN OK.  ANY SUCH COLD-POOL DRIVEN GROWTH WILL INCREASE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.

..EDWARDS.. 06/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   36970201 37080334 38800370 39970345 40120243 39960200
            39820004 37050017 36970201

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0959.html