MD 0962 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276…277…278… FOR PORTIONS KS…NRN/WRN OK…NRN/ERN TX PANHANDLE…ERN OK PANHANDLE.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS KS...NRN/WRN OK...NRN/ERN TX
PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276...277...278...
VALID 050439Z - 050545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
276...277...278...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS FCST TO PROCEED EWD TO SEWD ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WIND MAIN THREAT.
ISOLATED SVR HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE. FOR REMAINDER WW
276...TSTMS BEHIND INITIAL MCS AND OVER ITS COLD POOL SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AND MOSTLY BELOW SVR LIMITS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL BEING
POSSIBLE. WW 278 CAN BE CLEARED BEHIND TSTM COMPLEX. LOCAL OPTION
REMAINS TO EXTEND WW 277 COUNTIES IN PANHANDLES AHEAD OF REMAINING
CONVECTION PRIOR TO ITS ENTERING WRN OK.
DISCUSSION...VERY SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SERN
NEB SWWD ACROSS SLN/GBD AREAS...INTERSECTING LEADING EDGE OF MCS
OVER HODGEMAN COUNTY KS AS OF 0430Z. MOST FAVORABLE SVR WIND
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THAT FRONT...WHERE MODIFIED
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CORRIDORS OF 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE
LINGER...SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS MID-60S TO LOW-70S F. SUCH
RICH MOISTURE ALSO WILL SLOW DIABATIC SFC COOLING ENOUGH TO KEEP
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS SFC-BASED OR VERY NEARLY SO FOR AT LEAST
3-4 MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY SE OF FRONT. ALSO...FORCED ASCENT ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY WILL OVERCOME AREAS OF WEAK CINH TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SRN EXTENT
OF COMPLEX REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IT ENTERS OK...HOWEVER MLCINH
APPEARS WEAKEST FROM APPROXIMATELY I-40 NWD. PRIMARY LLJ WAS
ESTIMATED FROM SW TX NNEWD ACROSS CDS AREA THEN CURVING NWWD OVER
PANHANDLE...PER VWP/PROFILER DATA. HOWEVER...SOME VEERING OF THAT
FLOW SHOULD OCCUR OVER NW TX WITH ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE FLOW
POSSIBLE JUST ABOVE SFC...IN SUPPORT OF DEVELOPMENT ON SRN END OF
MCS.
..EDWARDS.. 06/05/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 36370136 37680026 39080017 39289748 38569640 35359653
35490030 35950124 36370136
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0962.html
Be First to Comment